As we have discussed the entirety of the GOPe plan is dependent upon Jeb Bush pulling in 15-20% of the primary vote. If Jeb cannot make the 20% threshold the plan simply falls apart because the “splitter strategy” no longer works.
Even with the RNC rule changes, the primary date changes and the delegate distribution changes all to assist Bush, if Jeb can’t pull in 20% of the base vote none of the structural supports can compensate.
The roadmap is designed to be successful with 20% (1/5th of the vote). It gets harder if a few percentages are dropped, but it collapses at 15% or lower margins. There simply is no way for the RNC/GOPe to get Jeb elected -regardless of procedural benefit- if he drops to or below 15%.
Currently Jeb Bush is polling: 9% in Texas, 9% in South Carolina, 7% in New Hampshire and between 10% (Gravis) to 16% (Reuters) nationally. The trend is downward, and continues to be unsustainable.
So what is the RNC/GOPe apparatus (Wall Street, K-Street, The CoC, McConnell/Boehner crew) going to do?
Well, they have three options:
#1) Destroy Trump – so far, everything they have tried has been unsuccessful. But they won’t stop trying.
#2) Change Jeb’s Message – so far, everything they have tried has been unsuccessful. ~ OR ~
#3) Change the RNC/GOPe chosen candidate.
If they choose option #3 – Absent of introducing another replacement, the only viable option within the field they control is Marco Rubio who is on the team to play the role of splitter for Florida.
This is an option. Not an option they want, but still an option. An option that becomes increasingly possible as Jeb’s campaign continues to fail.
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